Musings of an Entrepreneur

                                                 

As it is built on the Company of Heroes engine, I had great hopes for this real time strategy game (RTS). Unfortunately, the game is even more simplistic than Company of Heroes (which itself was extremely simple) and the unit control is nowhere near as precise as in Company of Heroes. My RTS hopes now rest on Starcraft II and Company of Heroes: Tales of Valor.

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As a gamer and fan of marketplaces, I have followed with amazement the rise and fall of IGE (www.ige.com). It started as a marketplace for Everquest virtual goods and rapidly expanded to others, especially World of Warcraft.

When I looked at the company a few years ago, it was generating tens of millions in revenues. I was shocked that a virtual goods marketplace could be so big. They were actually much more than a marketplace as they actually employed “gold farmers” to play the game and generate items for sale. This position put them at odds with the gaming companies and gamers who were the ultimate source of their revenues. This eventually led to their downfall.

Wired tells the fantastic tale in all its glory – sex scandals, back stabbings and all!

Read it at:
http://www.wired.com/gaming/virtualworlds/magazine/16-12/ff_ige?currentPage=all

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I was a huge fan of the original Command & Conquer and Red Alert games. When they came out they were truly innovative. Westwood who had invented the genre with Dune 2 redefined it with C&C by introducing competitive multiplayer games and truly dominated the real time strategy game genre alongside Warcraft and Warcraft II during the 1990s until Age of Empires showed up.

Unfortunately, the last few games have been forgettable and Red Alert 3 is no exception. The over the top single player story is fun and the actors are great, but the game lacks the depth of the best real time strategy games of the past few years.

The units are too fragile, there is only one resource type, way too few unit types and the pace is too quick. As result, the game lacks the depth of a richer game like Rise of Nations and the fine tactical control of a game like Company of Heroes. A game combining the strengths of those two games would be truly innovative.

I guess I will have to wait. I hope Stracraft II does not disappoint!

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While I was disappointed with the graphics and the multiplayer play, I really loved the depth of the single player story line. I am excited to see what they will come up with next.

Next up: Metal Gear Solid 4 (PS3), Command and Conquer Red Alert 3 (PC), Starcraft II (PC), Diablo III (PC), Halo Wars (Xbox 360), Gears of War 2 (Xbox 360), Company of Heroes II (PC), Call of Duty 5 and 6 (Xbox 360). I can’t wait!

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As many of you know, I have been a fan of the Xbox 360 for some time (see Report from the video game wars and Great game setup), but last week I bought a PS3!

With the recent price cut, the $399 40 Gb PS3 is an amazing deal. For $399 you get a Blu-ray player, built in wifi and free online playing. The equivalent would actually be more expensive on the Xbox – it’s $94 for the wifi connector, $179 for the HD-DVD player (not to mention it’s not as nicely integrated) and $59.99 per year for Xbox Live Gold.

Out of the box the PS3 looks good, there is no power adapter – it’s built into the console which is a huge improvement on the humongous power adapter of the Xbox 360 – and it’s quieter than the Xbox 360. On the negative side, the first thing it does is download a patch which takes forever to download and install. Once that was done, it ran smoothly. As a cinephile, I love the Blu-ray player which nicely complements the HD DVD player I already have for all the movies that are not available in both formats.

All that said, I only bought the PS3 because it finally has a game I really wanted to play: Uncharted: Drake’s Fortune. It’s a third person adventure/action game which is probably best described as “Indiana Jones meets Gears of War.” It’s single player only with no coop, but it’s tons of fun.

Unfortunately for Sony, Drake’s Fortune is the only exclusive PS3 game I truly wanted to play. The Xbox 360 still has many more great exclusive games: Gears of War, Halo 3, Bioshock, Mass Effect. Most of the games available on both consoles come out first on the Xbox such as Oblivion IV and The Orange Box. Finally, with multiplayer working better on the Xbox and as more of my friends have Xboxes, I buy the multiplayer games available on both, such as Call of Duty 4, only on the Xbox 360.

Conclusion:

The Xbox 360 is still the better console for most hard core gamers with a stronger line up of games and a cheaper entry price. However, with the new lower price point and new games, Sony is finally back in the race.

It’s going to be interesting to watch the battle over the next few years. The competition can only be good for gamers. At the very least, I hope Microsoft will embed wifi in the console and drop the Xbox live fee.

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My gaming credentials:

I will start by admitting that I am a gamer. I have been playing games since I got my first PC in the early 1980s. I rapidly discovered a weakness for strategy games, especially real time strategy games, and adventure games. The adventure genre has fallen into disrepute recently, but I used to love Sierra Games: King’s Quest, Space Quest, Hero’s Quest, Police Quest, Gabriel Knight, Knights of Camelot, Leisure Suit Larry, etc. The only really captivating adventure games of the past few years have been The Longest Journey (the original, Dreamfall is sub par) and Broken Sword: The Sleeping Dragon. As for strategy games, my favorites are Sword of Aragon, Panzer General, Warlords, Civilization, Dune 2, Warcraft, Command and Conquer, Age of Empires, Rise of Nations and Company of Heroes. I am currently looking forward to Supreme Commander and Command and Conquer 3.

I will readily admit that I am more of a PC gamer than a console gamer though I have owned numerous consoles from the original Atari to the PS2 and Xbox. While I use the PC to play strategy and adventure games, I use the console to play first and third person shooters, role playing games (except for Diablo which I played on PC), car racing games, sports games and fighting games.

The PlayStation 3:

The PlayStation 3 was the console I was most looking forward to. It had all the technical specs that a self-avowed gadget and technology enthusiast like me can only dream of: Cell processor, 1080p, Blu-ray, built in wireless networking, HDMI connector. I was even ready to overlook the $599 price in light of all the features and the fact that the last two PlayStations were considered expensive when they came out. Inevitably the price will fall as Moore’s law dictates.

Unfortunately I was disappointed:

• The game graphic quality was no better than that of the Xbox360. In fact it was often slightly worse, even when compared with first generation Xbox360 games, let alone second generation Xbox games like Gears of War. Gamespot corroborates my findings with a detailed analysis and report which you can read at: http://www.gamespot.com/features/6162742/index.html?tag=features;title;0
• The controllers don’t have rumble feedback, the battery life is terrible and you can’t replace the batteries. I have not yet tried the tilt sensitivity so I will reserve my judgment on that though I suspect it’s no match for the Wii in that department.
• The system cannot multitask properly and twice took 45 minutes to download and install “required” updates making the system useless in the meantime. On the Xbox 360 you can easily download something from the net while playing a game. Not to mention, that these updates make the PlayStation 3 feel like an unfinished product.
• Again, contrarily to the Xbox360, the PS3 cannot connect to home networks meaning that the only way to transfer music, photos and videos from your PC is via a memory card, USB drive or ripping them on a CD.
• The interface and browser could use a lot of help. The system can’t tell you which Blu-ray disc you have. Entering a name, password or web URL is a pain and the system does not offer an onscreen keyboard like the Xbox’s. The web browser is incredibly awkward – try to use MySpace or Youtube with it – good luck!
• There are not enough good games available.
• The PS3 is hard to find.

Conclusion: Don’t buy a PS3 right now, unless you want a Blu-ray player (and I would also recommend waiting on the HD DVD vs. Blu-ray war to settle before doing that). The game and PS3 availability is going to be addressed in the year to come. Prices will fall. Hopefully Sony will address the browser, network connectivity and UI issues with more of those “required updates” and maybe find a way to match Xbox Live.

The Xbox 360:

I have owned an Xbox 360 since the Spring of 2006. I have to admit I have been impressed. I am completely addicted to Oblivion IV and Gears of War (which I just finished in co-op mode with my good friend William, VP of Marketing at OLX). I also play Top Spin 2, Burnout Revenge, Project Gotham Racing 3, Dead or Alive 4 and Assault Heroes. I am also very much looking forward to Lost Planet and Halo 3.

What has impressed me the most has been Microsoft’s attention to detail:

• Xbox Live is amazing! It works well, it’s easy to use. The multiplayer system is phenomenal, especially compared to the numerous problems I have been experiencing with PC games in recent years (Note to Relic on Company of Heroes: you must allow team ranked games where I play with my ally and not just random people – also stop counting all my victories as losses – yes even after patch 1.4!) . You can even download HD movies (though they only have 6 available right now and take about 5 hours to download)
• If you turn the wireless controller on, it turns the Xbox 360 on!
• Connecting the Xbox to a Media Center PC to exchange files is very easy.

Gripes:

• The wireless adapter should be built in the Xbox 360 Pro and not require an extra purchase
• Xbox Live should be free. Most online PC gaming is free except for MMORPGs. Xbox Live is a huge comparative advantage with the PS3. It should be worth it for Microsoft to lock in more users by providing Live access for free.
• The power supply is incredibly big and the Xbox360 is way noisier than it should be!
• The movie selection on Xbox Live is really poor, especially in HD – and what I really want is a Netflix-like all you can eat movie and TV show service for $19.99 a month with almost everything in HD and not have to pay per download. I suppose this is more the studios’ fault than Microsoft, nonetheless, it’s annoying.
• Using component cables and an optical cable for surround sound is less clean than using an HDMI 1.3 cable.

Conclusion: I was originally concerned by the lack of an HDMI connector and the lack of support for 1080p. However, an HDMI connector is only really useful to play certain protected content from HD DVD or Blu-ray. It offers no advantages in video quality for displaying games in 720p, thus the high-definition component connection is good enough. More importantly, the game selection is good, the graphics and playability is great and Xbox Live works incredibly well. If you are a hard core gamer, this is the console to get right now. Make sure you get Oblivion IV and Gears of War with it too!

The Wii:

To be honest, I had very low expectations for the Wii. I stopped using Nintendo with the Nintendo 64. However, the interest that the Wii garnered with its wireless controller, which can be used as a handheld pointing device and can detect motion and rotation in three dimensions, peaked my curiosity.

I played Wii Sports and Zelda and loved the interface. Tennis was tons of fun and I can’t wait for them to release a full blown tennis game for the Wii. The user interface was extremely easy to use and the parents of my friends who own Wiis were not only interested in playing but figured out how to play in no time.

On the downside, the low quality of the graphics really annoyed me. Most of the games available on the market did not interest me (and frankly appeared downright childish). There is no online gaming available yet.

Conclusion: For younger players, non gamers and casual gamers the Wii is a good choice. It’s much less expensive than the competing systems and Wii Sports and Zelda are great launch titles.

Personal Conclusion:

I have decided to separate my personal preferences from my market analysis as I have realized my personal choices don’t reflect those of the mass market when it comes to gaming. If I represented the average consumer, Nintendo would have died years ago and Sony would have had a runaway success with its PSP. I love the depth, richness and graphic quality of the games on the PSP and its ability to play movies on its bright great looking screen! (Non-sequitur: Sony you need a lesson in interface design. Transferring movies to the PSP is way too much of a pain! If you can take lessons from Microsoft on interface design, you know something is seriously wrong!). Instead, the Gameboy Advance and DS have sold over 100 million units while Sony sold 25 million PSP.

As you can deduct from the above report, I own and highly recommend the Xbox 360. The PS3 has been incredibly disappointing and I will wait a year before considering buying one to complement my Xbox 360. As of now unless Sony gets exclusives on “must play” games, I don’t think I will ever get one. As for the Wii, I truly hesitated. Last week-end I headed to Best Buy to buy one. They did not have any, but a nearby store had a few in stock. Before buying it, I went to demo it one last time. They had a video game showcase with a Wii next to an Xbox 360 both playing on 42” Plasma TVs. The graphic difference was so stark, I could not get myself to buy the Wii. The graphics looked so amateurish and old! Instead, I left with Assault Heroes for the Xbox 360 and Killzone and Field Commander for the PSP.

Market Conclusion:

I can’t believe what I am about to write. This has always been Sony’s market to lose! They have a huge installed base of fans. An enormous library of backwards compatible games. Yet, in the last year they seem to have done everything in their power to lose! They released the PS3 much later than expected. The price is exorbitant. The games and graphics are not better than on the Xbox, partly because the development tools for it are incredibly complex to use (every game developer I know has been complaining!). The multimedia and online functions are sub-par. If the three consoles had no legacy of built in fans and backwards compatible games, I would say the Xbox and Wii would do well and the PlayStation 3 would be a disaster – maybe not as bad as the 3DO or NeoGeo, but probably relatively poorly. However, it’s still early in the game and with the legions of fans and catalog of great games and a number of PS3 only exclusive great games, the PS3 will end up doing very well once the teething problems are out. However, this market is no longer Sony’s sole reserve and their 70% market share will go the way of history. In fact, I suspect the Xbox 360 will edge out the PS3 in overall sales over the next few years.

As for the future of the high end console wars, I believe it’s actually Microsoft’s game to lose right now. The original Xbox was released 1 year later than the PS2, yet the Xbox360 was released 1 year earlier than the PS3. By using more off the shelf components, Microsoft benefits from the innovations in the PC industry and the R&D of third party firms. It also keeps their costs lower. If they keep it up, they should be in a position to release the next Xbox much before the PS4 hits the market and take the market with them.

In the interim, if I was running Xbox I would do the following:

• Make Xbox Live free
• As soon as financially viable start cutting the price of the Xbox Core to $249, then $199, and hopefully $149 and $99 after that
• Release an Xbox Pro Wireless with built in Wifi and a headset for Xbox Live bundled for the $399 price of the current Xbox Pro
• For the Xbox 3 in 4-5 years:
1. Match the Wii’s motion sensing controller, but also keep a traditional controller bundled with the device
2. By then the chipset for an HD DVD / Blu-ray drive should cost less than $100, integrate it into the Xbox whichever the winner – or support both
3. Have 802.11n or its successors built in
4. Support 1080p and have an HDMI or successor interface
5. Make sure the console is quiet and does not come with a monster brick power supply – ideally you should be able to plug the power cord directly into the console
6. Be backwards compatible with Xbox360 games
7. Charge no more than $399

As for Nintendo, I have written them off too many times before to do so again. My original instinct was that the motion sensing controller would be a fad, but I am sure they are going to come up with great games and applications designed specifically for it, in a similar way that they surprised me with the touchpad on the DS. As a result I predict they will do very well, especially with younger gamers, casual gamers and first time gamers (meaning formerly non gamers).

In other words, I suspect that when it’s all said and done and we’re tallying the number of consoles sold at the end of 2010, all 3 makers will have installed bases of more than 50 million, maybe even 100 million, devices splitting the market 3 ways with maybe a 10-15% market share difference between them. My instinct would be that Xbox360 and the Wii would come out on top with the PS3 lagging behind.

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